Interactive demo

Move a slider. Watch the forecast move.

A simplified Monte-Carlo of the production model — runs entirely in your browser, no network round-trip. Default mix is HRSA UDS Texas; default trial count is 1,000.

Predicted realized · p50
median across trials
Worst case · p10
10th percentile
Best case · p90
90th percentile
Breach risk · 0.0% fraction of trials below 90% of p10 — the safety margin

Per-payer realized vs billed (mean)

Forecast distribution · realized $ across trials

How this differs from the production model. The browser demo runs the per-payer denial × paid-claim realization factor without the lag-curve convolution — i.e., it answers “how much will this month's billing realize across all future periods?”, not the per-period forecast the production model produces. The point of the demo is intuition for the payer-mix lever; for the full time-series forecast read the methodology.